UAE Absorbs 58% of Hormuz Diversions as Cargo Compression Intensifies in Week 7
project44’s latest Supply Chain Insights data shows the Gulf shipping network is no longer redistributing cargo across the Indian Ocean. It is compressing back into the UAE, with Jebel Ali import dwell hitting 46.9 days and no sign of inflection
CHICAGO, April 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- project44’s latest Supply Chain Insights report shows that seven weeks into the Strait of Hormuz closure, total weekly diversions have fallen to their lowest point of the disruption. Week 7 recorded 5,317 total diversions, still 3.5 times the pre-disruption baseline, but the composition of those diversions tells a fundamentally different story than the headline number suggests.
In the early weeks of the disruption, cargo was rerouting outward across the Indian Ocean to India, Sri Lanka, and Oman. In Week 7, 58% of all diversions ended inside the UAE, up from 43% in Week 1. The network is not redistributing cargo. It is compressing it back into the same Gulf ports it was diverted from.
Key findings: Week 7
- Total diversions reached 5,317, the lowest of the disruption, but still 3.5 times the pre-disruption weekly baseline of 1,075 to 1,581
- 58% of all diversions ended inside the UAE in Week 7, up from 43% in Week 1
- Jebel Ali import dwell reached 46.9 days, a new record for the seventh consecutive week, up from 13.5 days in Week 1
- Abu Dhabi import dwell stands at 48.9 days
- India’s share of diverted cargo dropped from 15% to 8% in a single week, as Indian transshipment hubs reach capacity limits
- The Fujairah to Khawr Fakkan lane recorded 496 shipments in Week 7, compared to zero in the first four weeks of the disruption
- Jeddah vessel calls reached 7.7 per day, 30% above the pre-disruption baseline
The network is compressing, not recovering
The rise in the UAE’s share of diversions is not a sign of adaptation. In Week 1, when carriers were scrambling to reroute cargo across the Indian Ocean, 43% of diversions still ended inside the UAE. After seven weeks, that share has risen to 58%. The network has not built more capacity elsewhere. It has run out of capacity elsewhere.
The Fujairah to Khawr Fakkan corridor makes the compression visible. That short intra-UAE lane carried no shipments in the first four weeks of the disruption. It carried 496 in Week 7. This is not a new route opening up to absorb diverted volume. It is secondary congestion spreading to ports that were never designed to handle it.
Dwell times set new records with no sign of inflection
Jebel Ali import dwell has set a new record every single week of the disruption without exception. It stood at 13.5 days in Week 1 and now stands at 46.9 days, a 3.5 times increase in seven weeks with no sign of reversal. At the current rate of increase, roughly five to seven days per week, Jebel Ali import dwell would exceed 60 days by the end of May.
Abu Dhabi is tracking at 48.9 days. Cargo entering these ports is waiting nearly seven weeks to clear. The trend has not reversed in any single week of this dataset.
Relief routes are closing
India absorbed 12 to 15% of diverted cargo in Weeks 5 and 6. In Week 7, that share fell to 8%, even as total diversions also declined. Transshipment dwell at Nhava Sheva stands at 14.0 days, Mundra at 13.6 days, and Pipavav at 24.6 days. These are precisely the nodes where diverted Gulf cargo would arrive, and they are congested at that layer.
Sri Lanka’s share of diverted cargo has dropped to under 1%. Kuwait has formed its own internal diversion loop.
Some downstream ports show improving dwell times. Pipavav’s transshipment dwell fell from 36.7 days in Week 5 to 24.6 days in Week 7. Colombo’s stands at 9.1 days, approaching pre-disruption levels. Those improvements reflect less cargo arriving at those ports, not faster clearance. The dwell relief at downstream nodes is a consequence of cargo collapsing back into the UAE, not of the network returning to health.
What the data signals beyond the diversion count
The falling diversion count may partly reflect a structural shift in shipper planning that the dataset cannot directly measure. Voyages committed after Week 3, when it became clear the closure was not temporary, would not appear as diversions. They would simply never enter the Gulf-bound pipeline.
The port-level data points in the same direction. Salalah’s TEU flow reversed from a net accumulation of +27,366 in Week 5 to a net dispatch of -20,396 in Week 7, sending far more cargo outward than it receives, pointing westward toward the Red Sea.
This reading is not conclusive on its own. But it points in the same direction: the lower diversion count reflects supply chain decisions made weeks ago, not network recovery happening now.
A Strait reopening would not resolve this quickly. A backlog of nearly 47 days at Jebel Ali takes weeks to clear even at full capacity, and the structural schedule changes carriers have made do not reverse overnight.
“The headline number is falling, but it’s telling the wrong story. The network isn’t recovering. It’s compressing. Cargo that used to flow outward to India and Sri Lanka is being absorbed back into the UAE itself, because there’s nowhere else for it to go. Jebel Ali has set a new dwell record every single week of this disruption, signaling a system at its breaking point.” said Eric Fullerton, VP of Product Marketing and Data Insights at project44.
Read the full Supply Chain Insights report at https://www.project44.com/supply-chain-insights/.
About project44
project44 is the Decision Intelligence Platform for the modern supply chain. Its context based AI transforms fragmented logistics management into unified intelligence, bringing certainty to global supply chain operations. With intelligent transportation management, end to end visibility, yard management and last mile solutions, project44 connects over 1.5 billion shipments annually for over 1,000 leading brands in manufacturing, automotive, retail, life sciences, food and beverage, CPG, and oil, chemical and gas. Learn more at project44.com.
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